Industrial Real Estate Market Dynamics in Singapore: A VAR Approach

Abstract

The behavioural structure of large and strategic industrial real estate accommodation does not exist in a vacuum. Instead, its fundamental investment values and yields are uniquely affected through the dynamic interaction among exogenous and endogenous forces related to the industrial real estate demand-supply conditions, macroeconomic and institutional polices as well as urban industrial plans. This study aims to understand the dynamic behaviour of the industrial real estate market in Singapore that is slowly transitioning from a capital intensive to knowledge intensive economy. Using data obtained from various sources between 2001Q4-2010Q2 which essentially capture three property cycles, we incorporate a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to holistically model the industrial real estate market in Singapore with respect to its demand-supply conditions, market capitalization rates which encompass information about rental yields, capital values along with future expectations.

This study will help policy makers and developers to understand the structure of the industrial real estate market in Singapore along with respect to its macroeconomic conditions. The results are insightful as the data capture both the public and private markets along with a new hi-tech industrial accommodation (science parks), which is slowly gaining prominence as of the turn at the 21st century as Singapore strives to steer towards a knowledge based industrial economy.
 

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Keywords

Industrial Real Estate, Vector Auto-Regression, Capital Values, Rental Yields, Property Cycle, Singapore

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