Dynamics of the Condominium Market in Singapore

Abstract

This study examines economic and market factors that drive the demand, supply, and pricing of condominiums in Singapore using a 2-stage least squares regression methodology. This empirical study covers a sample period of 12 years from 1988 to 2000. The condominium housing demand model showed that GDP growth and the inflation rate had positive relationships with condominium demand one quarter ahead. However, demand for condominiums was negatively related to one-quarter lagged stock price change, two-quarter lagged condominium housing price change, lagged demand in the previous two quarters, and one-quarter lagged household formation. On the supply side, changes in last-quarter condominium housing stock, condominium commencement, the prime lending rate, and current and lagged-quarter labor costs would adversely affect developers’ decisions to commence new condominium projects. In the condominium price model, the dummy variable used to test the effects of the government’s anti-speculation policies in May 1996, which increased the supply of residential lands and restricted the loan quantum to a limit of 80% of the housing price, was significant and positive. It implied that the policies were effective in dampening condominium prices by 0.32% per quarter for two consecutive quarters in 4Q1996 and 1Q1997.
 

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