Predictability of Equity REIT Returns: Implications for Property Tactical Asset Allocation

Author

Start Page / End Page

Volume

Issue Number

Year

Publication

John Okunev and Patrick J. Wilson

32 / 46

11

2

2008

International Real Estate Review

Abstract


This study presents further evidence of the predictability of excess equity REIT (real estate investment trust) returns. Recent evidence on forecasting excess returns using fundamental variables has resulted in diminishing returns from the 1990’s onward. Trading strategies based on these forecasts have not significantly outperformed the buy/hold strategy of the 1990’s. We have developed an alternative strategy that is based on the time variation of the risk premium of investors. Our results indicate that it is possible to outperform the buy/hold strategy by modeling the time variation of the risk premium. By modeling the dynamic behavior of the risk premium, we are able to implicitly capture economic risk premiums that are not captured by conventional multi beta asset pricing models.
 

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