Office Market Dynamics in Madrid: Modelling with a Single-Equation Error Correction Mechanism
Author
Start Page / End Page
Volume
Issue Number
Year
Publication
Ramiro J. Rodriguez, Simon Sosvilla-Rivero
451 / 491
20
4
2017
International Real Estate Review
Abstract
This paper seeks to explain the office market dynamics in Madrid by using cointegration models. Specifically, we focus on the equilibrium path of stock, vacancy rate and letting rents, and feedback with two exogenous economic determinants, namely, service sector employment and gross domestic product. We apply for the first time a single-equation error correction mechanism (ECM) to a system of equations for the commercial property market of Madrid and examine its accuracy when compared to the more frequently used classical two-step ECM. The main findings to emerge from our empirical analysis are that rents and vacancy rates react rapidly when they do not correspond to their equilibrium level. Stock, as expected, responds more slowly when it does not correspond to its long-term path. We draw on quarterly observations for the Madrid market between 2001:Q1 and 2015:Q2.
Keywords
Error Correction Model, Office Market, Single-Equation Error Correction Mechanism