Measuring New Housing Prices in Pre-Sale Markets: A Repeat-Sales Approach Using Purchase Contract Cancellations

Abstract

In markets dominated by pre-sales, which is a structural feature of housing provision in emerging economies, constructing price indices is limited by the lack of resale history. Addressing this statistical blind spot, this study proposes a novel empirical strategy which exploits purchase contract cancellations to identify repeat-sales pairs. Utilizing a dataset of 25,049 pairs from Santiago (2013–2024) in Chile, this approach mitigates depreciation bias by comparing the same never-occupied unit over time. Results from geometric and arithmetic estimators reveal three key findings: (1) a distinct price hierarchy, where capital appreciation disproportionately favors entry-level housing and investment segments; (2) the index serves as a leading indicator, which anticipated the post-2021 market correction ahead of official administrative records; and (3) a 27% nominal loss rate in subsequent placements, which exposes the magnitude of price adjustments consistent with liquidity frictions. These findings validate cancellations not merely as administrative voids, but as real-time signals of financial distress, thus offering a replicable monitoring tool for global jurisdictions reliant on the pre-sale leverage model.

View PDF – https://doi.org/10.53383/100423

Keywords

Housing price index, Repeat sales, Contract cancellations, Pre-sale market, Leading indicator